Segmentation and Holocene Behavior of the Middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NW Turkey)

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Marmara region is composed of three parallel strands all separated by ∼50 km. activity middle strand, which borders southern edge Sea, much debated because its present-day very low seismicity. This contrasts with historical, archeological and paleoseismological evidence, suggest several destructive earthquakes have occurred during last 2000 years. Our study aims to better constrain seismic hazard on strand exploring Holocene paleoseismicity. For this, we mapped 148 km eastern part using high-resolution satellite imagery. A series landforms offset been systematically measured recover past ruptures. Three Late Pleistocene-Holocene terraces dated terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide method, constraining a horizontal slip rate mm/yr. statistical analysis offsets evidences major ruptures preserved landscape, coseismic lateral displacements ranging between 3 6.5 m. corresponds Mw ∼7.3 able propagate along fault segments. Historical seismicity paleoseismology data that large NAF (MNAF) happened 1065 CE 14th 18th centuries CE. Since then, MNAF may accumulated enough stress generate rupture.